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Bend Housing Recap:  September 2019

My oh my, the median sales price is falling!! Or is it?  Yes, as reported by several local media outlets,  the median sales price broke from the year to date upward trend and came in at $440K, down $40K from August’s record high of $480K.  Does this mean our market is correcting?  Not necessarily.  During this same month we saw a surge in Buyer activity, with stronger than usual performance on the number of actual closings (up 5.6% year over year) and the number of homes that went pending (7.3% year over year) all while inventories contracted tightly.  In fact, the months of housing inventory on the market in Bend at the end of September was at an all time low for this month in the past four years.  

If anything, September’s results are setting the stage for a very competitive buyer’s market in October.  In fact, we are already seeing this.  As of mid month, the median price of recorded homes sales for October is at a whopping $490K, and the median list price of pending homes for this month is hovering at $463K.  Both strong indicators that we will see a rebound in the median sales price back to the typical yearly trend.

 

How is this effecting transactions?

One challenge that is created by the reporting of a single months’s worth of data is that it confuses actual buyers and sellers, which has created some tension in our market.  Buyer’s see the news of prices falling for a month and feel empowered that we are entering a buyer’s market, whereas Seller’s are looking at  record low inventories and feel empowered to hold prices.  As this plays out it does influence some deals from coming together. 

 

My advice to anyone watching our market is to pay attention to the overall trend, and don’t focus as much on a single month’s worth of information.  You will end up with an overall healthier view on what is actually going on in the sometimes manic world of Central Oregon real estate.

 

Medain sales drop to $440K, however October mid month data suggests this is merely an anomoloy.

Months of residential inventory in Bend is below 3 months of supply.  This is the lowest we’ve seen for September in the last 4 years.

The number of homes that went into contract during September was up over 5% year over year, while overall inventories were down.

The number of new homes to market in October was slightly up to last September, but below the average we’ve seen for this month over the past 5 years.

Our expectations heading into this fall:

With interest rates still hovering at record lows, the economy cranking along, and incredibly tight inventories, I expect we will remain in a Seller’s market going into Winter.  With that said, Buyers are becoming selective and the days of just marking your home up 5% over the most recent sale seem to be fading, especially for those over the $600K price point.  

 

 

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