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Bend Housing Recap:  June 2019

Is this the start of a second-half slowdown for the Bend Oregon real estate market in 2019?  Every month thus far we’ve seen double digit year over year gains in the median sales price of a home in Bend, and June came in nearly flat to last year.  So what has changed?  For starters we saw a significant surge in listing activity towards the end of April and early May.  Sellers sitting on the sidelines during April saw the news of strong sales numbers and came out in droves to list properties in May. Some price points saw a nearly 50% increase in fresh listings over what we typically see in May, meaning the Buyers had options, and a bit more leverage.  Homes that went under contract during this period influenced the soft sales prices we are seeing in June.

Most signs point to the surge in inventory flattening out, with active listings flat to last year, new listings back to typical levels, and a good amount of homes under contract.  We will be anxiously watching to see if June’s results cause sellers to take aggressive price reductions which could temporarily squash the ever surging median sales price in Bend.  If this does occur, we could quickly see inventories tighten back to a level that could put upward pressure on housing prices during the last quarter of the year.

 

Don’t panic yet…This is just one month’s worth of data.  The $25K drop could be a shakeout of excess inventory or possibly a total fluke.  Only time will tell.

Inventories jumped a bit in June as the number of new listings to hit the market in May surged up 12% in Bend over last year, bucking the current trend of down 5 to 15% to last year seen in earlier months.

The number of homes that went into contract in June is right on par with the trend we’ve been seeing over the past six months.

After a surge of new listings hit the market in May, new listing activity calmed down in June, trending close to last year’s levels.

Our expectations heading into Q3:  Cautiously Optimistic

I think we can all benefit from a bit of a tapering off in the 10% plus growth we’ve seen in the Central Oregon real estate market, especially since some tapering will bode well for long term stability.  I am hoping that June’s numbers are a sign that our growth will slow below the 10% average we’ve experienced the last few years.  This will provide some opportunity for buyers while maintaining home values.

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